Covid and vaccines and whatnot

jetflag

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I am vaccinated. Though not much interested in touching other people. Don’t think I will sign up… 😛😛
oh you conspiracy theorist you, what could possibly go wrong if your vaccinated? don't you know you can't spread the virus that way :p:p
 

Hot Tuna

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and three's a charm @Magnevi Remind you of any Sjans event? :ROFLMAO: 👌

FI_Yym2VQAUeWA_



FI_ZRWFVcAUwrhe


"pandemic of the unvaxxed" they're keeping us in this pandemic people 🤷‍♂️

"59 followers"

Wow, really trying to take down the important issues there 👍
 

jetflag

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Well I played some squash today. And since we had lockdown….. I’m dead now.

Whole country scared about covid but playing some sports after sitting for weeks is what’s going to kill people.
yeah the whole sports ban thing is just insanity. they got a lot of critique for that aswell, most from health professionals.
 
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dmgtz96

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Well I played some squash today. And since we had lockdown….. I’m dead now.

Whole country scared about covid but playing some sports after sitting for weeks is what’s going to kill people.
I would have likely gone insane if I had been unable to go to the gym during the 2nd half of 2021. My mental health has been much, much better than in March 2020 - April 2021
 
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dmgtz96

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Random comment about Ivermectin, putting together some info I found out yesterday.

I was always baffled why Ivermectin suddenly trended as a possible cure for COVID. I remember my parents telling me about how their (old) classmates and acquaintances considered treating themselves with Ivermectin.
In 2021 multiple studies popped up around the world showing that Ivermectin could inhibit COVID in cells in lab studies [1]. However, Ivermectin was only effective in concentrations of ~2.5 microMolar, which is hundreds of times greater than the possible concentration in the human body. From a biological standpoint, it was not going to be feasible to treat COVID-19 with Ivermectin in humans [2].
Still, clinical trials with Ivermectin in humans occured to show its impact against severe and mild/moderate COVID cases. The peer-reviewed studies found essentially no benefits against COVID by taking Ivermectin. Two studies included in several meta-analyses supporting Ivermectin as a treatment were huge in the sense that hundreds of patients took Ivermectin. The problems: one of these studies, Elgazzar et al. from Egypt, was just a pre-print. It did not go through rigorous, scientific peer-review. This pre-print went viral in the internet. Another study, Niaee et al. from Iran, was also a pre-print. Multiple unpublished studies were also included in the meta-analyses. See the figure below:

1642267918607.png

Figure taken from [2]. Elgazzar's pre-print has a 9.4% weight for severe COVID cases, and Niaee's pre-print has a 12.4% weight for moderate COVID cases. Compare with the weights of the other studies, especially the peer-reviewed studies (ex. 2.8% for Lopez-Medina's study for mild/moderate COVID cases).

Still, researchers included both pre-print and unpublished papers in their analyses, and one prominent meta-analysis [3] concluded that "large reductions in COVID-19 deaths were possible with Ivermectin."

...

In summer 2021, a biology student from the University of London found irregularities in the Elgazzar study [4]. Entire sentences were lifted off other researchers' work (plagiarism). The deaths reported in the paper did not match the deaths calculated from the raw, original data.

“The biggest example was when they changed ‘Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome’ to ‘Extreme Intense Respiratory Syndrome.’ They weren’t even checking to see if it made sense,” he adds.
“I added them up and the numbers in the spreadsheet didn’t match. They’d got the numbers of the people who had died wrong.”
The student assembled an international team of professors and experts to analyze thoroughly the Elgazzar paper, and with their efforts managed to have that paper retracted from the pre-print server.
Retracting Elgazzar's paper caused a domino effect in the research community. Meta-analyses which had included the Elgazzar paper's data started being retracted [5]. Today, if you see a paper that references the Elgazzar et al. pre-print, be wary of the results, as the data from that reference is not correct.

Sources:

[1] Flawed Ivermectin preprint highlights challenges of COVID drug studies. URL: Flawed ivermectin preprint highlights challenges of COVID drug studies
[2] Ivermectin: Breakthrough Coronavirus Cure or Bad Science? URL:
[3] Ivermectin for prevention and treatment of COVID-19 infection: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and trial sequential analysis to inform clinical guidelines
[4] St George's student uncovers false data in influential COVID-19 papers. URL: St George’s student uncovers false data in influential Covid-19 research papers
[5] Ivermectin meta-analysis to be retracted, revised, say authors. URL: Ivermectin meta-analysis to be retracted, revised, say authors

@jetflag @Br8k L3gnd @Gagi
 
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jetflag

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Quick reply. On my phone atm. from what i can deduce what you wrote the science isnt out on it and 2 to 3 papers need reviewing/ possible revision.

What im interrested in are the downsides/side effects of ivermectin. this has been on the market longer as opposed to the covis rna shots, and so the trails on that should be (reasonably) finished.
 
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dmgtz96

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Quick reply. On my phone atm. from what i can deduce what you wrote the science isnt out on it and 2 to 3 papers need reviewing/ possible revision.

What im interrested in are the downsides/side effects of ivermectin. this has been on the market longer as opposed to the covis rna shots, and so the trails on that should be (reasonably) finished.
Exactly. Science hasn't said yet that Ivermectin does not work; we need more info.
I don't know enough about biology or ivermectin to say what would happen if you took enough Ivermectin to replicate the cell conditions. The only thing I can guess (and this is without consulting in research papers) is that your body is going to reject the excess Ivermectin. How that happens is unknown to me.
 

dmgtz96

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From the video. Figure taken from The FDA-approved drug Ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro, a 2020 paper published in Antiviral Research.
Ivermectin only inhibits the virus at concentrations of ~2.8 micromolar. However, standard Ivermectin doses in human blood only reach about ~25 nanomolar, which is less than 1% the concentration required to inhibit the virus. (~0.89% from a rough calculation).

1642277626472.png
 

Gagi

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Sorry but I really lost the will to care about this (you tagged me)... Just tired of the discussion and arguments about the pandemic, vaccines and what have you.

That said, check the data on Molnupiravir. Could be used for treatment but it's not ideal.
 

dmgtz96

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Interesting twitter thread by Bob Wachter, chairman of the department of medicine at the University of California - San Francisco:

I wrote recently about WHY things will be safer in a few weeks.https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1482424425676898304… In this thread, I’ll talk about HOW we’ll know when they’re safe enough, and WHAT CHOICES I’ll make after we reach that blessed threshold. Like all-things-Covid, it’s tricky.

As you may recall, I’m 64 & fairly healthy (mild asthma, cholesterol). My age puts me in a moderate risk group, but my 3 shots – coupled w/ Omicron’s “mildness” – make my chances of hospitalization & death extremely low. Per the UK risk calculator I had a 1-in-500 chance of dying from a case of Delta. Omicron’s lesser severity drops that by ~80% – so it’s now ~1-in-2500. Taking Paxlovid (90% benefit) would drop that to ~1-in-22,000, but I can’t count on getting the pills (that might change as supply grows or after I turn 65). I’ve dodged Covid so far and would still prefer not to get it. (It looks like ~40% of the U.S. WILL get Omicron before this surge ends – huge, but still not “inevitable.”)

While I’m sure I won’t get a fatal case, there’s still a small risk of Long Covid (though a recent study found risk of Long Covid for fully vaxxed was reassuringly low). I’d also really prefer not to infect anybody, although at this point, I won't take extra precautions to protect those who are unvaxxed by choice. Yet even the non-vaxxers probably have some protection by now, since few of them will ultimately escape a case of Omicron. Their infection will give them some level of immunity (how much and for how long remain 2 of the big unanswered questions). Add it all up & it's clear that this Spring – w/ a milder virus & nearly 100% population immunity – may be about as safe as it gets… perhaps for many years. Thus I see this Spring as a time when everyone (especially those who have been extra careful for two years) needs to figure out how to navigate a far less risky landscape. (Cue the usual caveat: a new variant could easily screw things up, yet again.)

The bottom line is this: in a few weeks – when this surge ends – things are going to be as good as they're likely to get for the foreseeable future. What will my trigger be for switching to less cautious mode? It's a bit arbitrary – there's no bright line separating “too risky” & “not risky.” This means that others may come up w/ different thresholds. Mine will be case rates <10/100K/day (recognizing that reported cases now underestimate case #'s due to home testing). I’d also like to see test positivity rates of <1%. The math: when we reach a 1% overall rate in SF, that would translate to a ~0.5% asymptomatic positivity rate; or 1/200 asymptomatic people having Covid. At that prevalence, in a room of 15 folks, there’s a 7% chance that at least 1 has Covid. That's not huge, but it's not nothing. If you’re at higher risk than me, you might set your threshold numbers lower than mine. Today, SF has ~180 cases/100K/day & overall test positivity rate of 18% – not close to my triggers. But the numbers are in free fall & we could reach them in ~3 weeks. After we reach these thresholds in SF (or wherever you are), how will this change my (or your) behavior?

The main questions center on indoor spaces crowded with unmasked people of uncertain vaccination status.

Small indoor groups, visiting friends & family, indoor dining: all fine, without masks. If I had school-aged kids who were fully vaccinated, I’d be comfortable without masks in school, particularly if there were a school-wide vaccine requirement and good ventilation. My practice will be to always carry a KN95, and to don it in very crowded, poorly ventilated spaces with lots of unmasked people, particularly in parts of the U.S. or world with low vax or high case rates. I can’t tell you how crowded or how poorly ventilated, any more than I can say how likely rain needs to be in forecast before I grab an umbrella. I'll just trust my Spidey Sense: how long I’ll be in space, how awkward wearing a mask will be, whether folks are speaking, yelling, singing, or just standing around. Does it feel scary? At least at first, I’ll still mask on public transit (trains, planes) & shopping – crowded public spaces w/ lots of unmasked people. Once masks are no longer mandated, I don’t think I’ll mask at the hospital unless I’m seeing a patient with respiratory symptoms.

Some of my masking will be protection not just vs. Covid but also other respiratory bugs, incl. flu. I used to get a nasty URI every winter, which triggered my asthma, and I haven’t had that for 2 years. If masking in high-risk places makes wheezing less likely, why not?

Movies, theater, concerts: I’ll go, but probably still mask for a few months and see how it feels. Thanks to streaming, I won’t go to as many movies in theaters. Broadway musicals seem worth the risk. Ditto Springsteen. Outdoor sports: sure, & no mask except in bathroom.

Testing: I’ll keep tests on hand & test promptly for new symptoms. I’ll probably also test when visiting very high-risk people (ie, >80 or immunocompromised). Otherwise, I’ll use my basic indoor rule: no mask is OK in small-medium size groups in regions w/ low case rates.

In sum, I’ll wait till cases & test positivity rates fall to pre-surge levels before acting less cautiously – that’ll probably be 3-4 wks from now. When they do, I’ll carry a mask but use it only in crowded indoor spaces where risk seems unusually high. Other than that I plan to act, well, normal. I’ll accept the possibility that I’ll get Omicron, reassured by the high likelihood that it’ll be a mild case, that I’ll be able to diagnose it quickly & isolate, & that chances of Long Covid are very low in fully vaxxed people. Of course I'll quickly resume more cautious behavior if circumstances change. Your choices, of course, may differ – based on your risks, risk tolerance, contacts, and – let’s face it – on where you live. I expect to see plenty of masks in SF for years. Florida, not so much.

Each of us will need to navigate this new “normal” – some will choose to be even more careful than me; others will ditch their masks. After the surge ends, assuming you’re boosted, neither is "wrong." And there’s no question that the simplicity & tranquility of no longer ticking through a Covid risk algorithm several times a day is attractive. After living w/ the anxiety of Covid for so long, this transition is as tricky as the one we made in March 2020. We’ll all need to sort it out at our own pace – let's be patient with one another.

tl;dr 10 cases per 100k people per day will be his threshold between "not risky" and "too risky"
 

Magdelayna

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The other week i had a high temprature and headache for a couple of days,then i had a bit of a cough...but now all coffee i taste has this same horrible taste..doesnt matter which kind it is. Very strange,and then i read this was a main symptom of covid. So do you think ive had it? I havnt tested as ive only just noticed the coffee thing the last day or two.

Btw,i hadnt had a cold or flu for over 2 years before this.
 
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dmgtz96

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I would get tested if it's not too inconvenient to get a test
 

TwinSilo

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Spent time with the family over thanksgiving in the hometown Arizona and you wouldn't believe the mayhem of covid beliefs on show. Very Republican town and I actually came across many people who believed covid does not exist at all. When I told them I got sick and was in bed for 3 weeks with no smell and insane fever and hallucinations they said I must have caught something else, or got it from the vaccine I took.

Others, and many of my family, believed covid was part of a plan but when I pressed them I found that they had mixed answers on what the plan actual was, such as erosion of liberties, population control (through the vax anti-fertility or something), communists and of course Bill Gates was mentioned. I honestly don't know where they get it from, none of them are really on social media but maybe on youtube. Fox news definitely on the TV but I'm not aware of them pushing the Bill Gates line. A very sad state of affairs. Some did not look fondly upon me for choosing to take a vaccine either, it almost made them angry.
 

Hot Tuna

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It is scary to see even people you assume must be fairly intelligent falling for it all. I'm no psychologist but anger is almost entirely rooted in fear, and so on a basic level it is probably a subconscious reaction to the very uncertain times we live in.

Some people struggle when they feel they are not in control, and so will absorb as much information as possible, latching onto the things that suggests there is a level of control or planning in what is happening. Anger is also an effective tactic for feeling empowered.

Admittedly, the US seems to be the worst culprit and I can't offer too much comfort, other than that most global statistics seem to show that the majority of the public are on the side of common sense when it comes to Covid.

Of course, this is because of a secret Russian campaign to destabilise the country, in collaboration with the reverse vampires. Subscribe to my patreon for more details.
 
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dmgtz96

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... none of them are really on social media but maybe on youtube. Fox news definitely on the TV but I'm not aware of them pushing the Bill Gates line.

Those two are enough to radicalize otherwise normal people into antivaxxers and antimaskers. The YT algorithm is strong.
 
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dmgtz96

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1643577844023.png


Remember: you shouldn't take (or not take) the vaccine because some politicians tells you. They're not going to give you kudos or money because you take it (or refuse to take it). You take the vaccine so you can protect the loved ones around you - your spouse, children, brothers, and sisters. You don't even have to think about strangers.
Take the vaccine for yourself and so your loved ones (your closest family) are safe around you, and so you can live for them another day. Because society doesn't really care if you die.
 
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Gagi

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Really don't understand why people still get so emotional about the virus and vaccines. I might have understood fear at the start, but the attachment people have to other people's thoughts and theories is mind-boggling.
 
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