Julian Del Agranda
Elite Member
- Jul 3, 2020
- 1,583 Posts
- 1,824 Thanked
oh you conspiracy theorist you, what could possibly go wrong if your vaccinated? don't you know you can't spread the virus that wayI am vaccinated. Though not much interested in touching other people. Don’t think I will sign up…
yeah the whole sports ban thing is just insanity. they got a lot of critique for that aswell, most from health professionals.Well I played some squash today. And since we had lockdown….. I’m dead now.
Whole country scared about covid but playing some sports after sitting for weeks is what’s going to kill people.
I would have likely gone insane if I had been unable to go to the gym during the 2nd half of 2021. My mental health has been much, much better than in March 2020 - April 2021Well I played some squash today. And since we had lockdown….. I’m dead now.
Whole country scared about covid but playing some sports after sitting for weeks is what’s going to kill people.
“The biggest example was when they changed ‘Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome’ to ‘Extreme Intense Respiratory Syndrome.’ They weren’t even checking to see if it made sense,” he adds.
The student assembled an international team of professors and experts to analyze thoroughly the Elgazzar paper, and with their efforts managed to have that paper retracted from the pre-print server.“I added them up and the numbers in the spreadsheet didn’t match. They’d got the numbers of the people who had died wrong.”
Exactly. Science hasn't said yet that Ivermectin does not work; we need more info.Quick reply. On my phone atm. from what i can deduce what you wrote the science isnt out on it and 2 to 3 papers need reviewing/ possible revision.
What im interrested in are the downsides/side effects of ivermectin. this has been on the market longer as opposed to the covis rna shots, and so the trails on that should be (reasonably) finished.
I wrote recently about WHY things will be safer in a few weeks.https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1482424425676898304… In this thread, I’ll talk about HOW we’ll know when they’re safe enough, and WHAT CHOICES I’ll make after we reach that blessed threshold. Like all-things-Covid, it’s tricky.
As you may recall, I’m 64 & fairly healthy (mild asthma, cholesterol). My age puts me in a moderate risk group, but my 3 shots – coupled w/ Omicron’s “mildness” – make my chances of hospitalization & death extremely low. Per the UK risk calculator I had a 1-in-500 chance of dying from a case of Delta. Omicron’s lesser severity drops that by ~80% – so it’s now ~1-in-2500. Taking Paxlovid (90% benefit) would drop that to ~1-in-22,000, but I can’t count on getting the pills (that might change as supply grows or after I turn 65). I’ve dodged Covid so far and would still prefer not to get it. (It looks like ~40% of the U.S. WILL get Omicron before this surge ends – huge, but still not “inevitable.”)
While I’m sure I won’t get a fatal case, there’s still a small risk of Long Covid (though a recent study found risk of Long Covid for fully vaxxed was reassuringly low). I’d also really prefer not to infect anybody, although at this point, I won't take extra precautions to protect those who are unvaxxed by choice. Yet even the non-vaxxers probably have some protection by now, since few of them will ultimately escape a case of Omicron. Their infection will give them some level of immunity (how much and for how long remain 2 of the big unanswered questions). Add it all up & it's clear that this Spring – w/ a milder virus & nearly 100% population immunity – may be about as safe as it gets… perhaps for many years. Thus I see this Spring as a time when everyone (especially those who have been extra careful for two years) needs to figure out how to navigate a far less risky landscape. (Cue the usual caveat: a new variant could easily screw things up, yet again.)
The bottom line is this: in a few weeks – when this surge ends – things are going to be as good as they're likely to get for the foreseeable future. What will my trigger be for switching to less cautious mode? It's a bit arbitrary – there's no bright line separating “too risky” & “not risky.” This means that others may come up w/ different thresholds. Mine will be case rates <10/100K/day (recognizing that reported cases now underestimate case #'s due to home testing). I’d also like to see test positivity rates of <1%. The math: when we reach a 1% overall rate in SF, that would translate to a ~0.5% asymptomatic positivity rate; or 1/200 asymptomatic people having Covid. At that prevalence, in a room of 15 folks, there’s a 7% chance that at least 1 has Covid. That's not huge, but it's not nothing. If you’re at higher risk than me, you might set your threshold numbers lower than mine. Today, SF has ~180 cases/100K/day & overall test positivity rate of 18% – not close to my triggers. But the numbers are in free fall & we could reach them in ~3 weeks. After we reach these thresholds in SF (or wherever you are), how will this change my (or your) behavior?
The main questions center on indoor spaces crowded with unmasked people of uncertain vaccination status.
Small indoor groups, visiting friends & family, indoor dining: all fine, without masks. If I had school-aged kids who were fully vaccinated, I’d be comfortable without masks in school, particularly if there were a school-wide vaccine requirement and good ventilation. My practice will be to always carry a KN95, and to don it in very crowded, poorly ventilated spaces with lots of unmasked people, particularly in parts of the U.S. or world with low vax or high case rates. I can’t tell you how crowded or how poorly ventilated, any more than I can say how likely rain needs to be in forecast before I grab an umbrella. I'll just trust my Spidey Sense: how long I’ll be in space, how awkward wearing a mask will be, whether folks are speaking, yelling, singing, or just standing around. Does it feel scary? At least at first, I’ll still mask on public transit (trains, planes) & shopping – crowded public spaces w/ lots of unmasked people. Once masks are no longer mandated, I don’t think I’ll mask at the hospital unless I’m seeing a patient with respiratory symptoms.
Some of my masking will be protection not just vs. Covid but also other respiratory bugs, incl. flu. I used to get a nasty URI every winter, which triggered my asthma, and I haven’t had that for 2 years. If masking in high-risk places makes wheezing less likely, why not?
Movies, theater, concerts: I’ll go, but probably still mask for a few months and see how it feels. Thanks to streaming, I won’t go to as many movies in theaters. Broadway musicals seem worth the risk. Ditto Springsteen. Outdoor sports: sure, & no mask except in bathroom.
Testing: I’ll keep tests on hand & test promptly for new symptoms. I’ll probably also test when visiting very high-risk people (ie, >80 or immunocompromised). Otherwise, I’ll use my basic indoor rule: no mask is OK in small-medium size groups in regions w/ low case rates.
In sum, I’ll wait till cases & test positivity rates fall to pre-surge levels before acting less cautiously – that’ll probably be 3-4 wks from now. When they do, I’ll carry a mask but use it only in crowded indoor spaces where risk seems unusually high. Other than that I plan to act, well, normal. I’ll accept the possibility that I’ll get Omicron, reassured by the high likelihood that it’ll be a mild case, that I’ll be able to diagnose it quickly & isolate, & that chances of Long Covid are very low in fully vaxxed people. Of course I'll quickly resume more cautious behavior if circumstances change. Your choices, of course, may differ – based on your risks, risk tolerance, contacts, and – let’s face it – on where you live. I expect to see plenty of masks in SF for years. Florida, not so much.
Each of us will need to navigate this new “normal” – some will choose to be even more careful than me; others will ditch their masks. After the surge ends, assuming you’re boosted, neither is "wrong." And there’s no question that the simplicity & tranquility of no longer ticking through a Covid risk algorithm several times a day is attractive. After living w/ the anxiety of Covid for so long, this transition is as tricky as the one we made in March 2020. We’ll all need to sort it out at our own pace – let's be patient with one another.
... none of them are really on social media but maybe on youtube. Fox news definitely on the TV but I'm not aware of them pushing the Bill Gates line.