UFOs and Aliens

jetflag

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k, this discussion is going in circles. So i'll make this my concluding statement regarding the matter.

1 The pieced of evidence provided in the Nimitz case. one of the best one's you can put forth, do not hold up to closer inspection and/or scrutiny, and can be explained away with far more mundaine, down to earth explanations.
2 testimonial evidence is weak evidence when in case of an extraordinairy claim. regardless of expertise/degrees, pretty blue eyes, tone sincerity, fortitude and trust in them as being infallible even though they're just human beings and one of them actually had his maiden flight that day. the "professional lived experience" argument is similar to the one's faith healers use.
3 the entire ufologist case hinges on the assumption that at every instance it MUST have been the same object, even though there is in some instances a 40 minute gap. which is in my estimation an intellectually dishonest assumption.
4, Correct. military weapon sensors (from the mid 80's) cannot do that.. since they're a dead piece of scanning equipment m8 :D , what do you think is inside a gimballcam or radar? a super AI who can tell the difference between a weather balloon blip and a bird? reality check: they can't..the best a plane can do in terms of identification is F O F. ..the distinction is made by people. which is precisely where the problem lies and who can't, as a matter of fact properly distinquish or zoom in on an object 40 miles away traveling at mach 0.8..its an estimated guess and they're a hell of lot more times wrong then you might think lol (a lot of syrian civilians would testify to that if they wheren't dead) which is why for instance a strange radar blip is never directly identified as "enemy plane spotted", but "boogie" Remember, you're talking about mass production militairy equipment being as light and crammed as possible, developed in the 80's here...this isn't CERN levels of tech m8..
5 in relation to the either/or hovering or standstill, or moving at mach 1000 of an object etc-> paralax paralax paralax,
6 Look. You want to believe, perfectly fine. So do I. but I can't why? because the evidence presented here to "prove" the claim that it MUST have been magic tech aliens is, and i'm genuinly sorry to conclude this...hogwash levels weak. and no amount of human post-hoc memory consolidation from eye witnesses is going to change that. I can give you a case of a whole small city who in unison claim they saw an angel. Are all those people liers and wrong and therefor it must have been an Angel? ofcourse not.
 
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Magnevi

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So... which alien scifi movies do you think are somewhat plausible?

You’ll probably disqualify most simply because of the travel-faster-than-light thing. But is there any, or maybe just a part of any movie you think is sort of... possible, likely, “the way to go”...?
 
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Gagi

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Well, regarding the actual aliens, I think those in Arrival were at least interesting because they weren't shaped/built like humans (with a head, torso, limbs etc), but rather a strange shape. Whether that's what they would look like I don't know (nobody does, I guess it would depend on their worlds and evolution), but it's very interesting to think about.

As far as actual scenarios go, I don't really know; I haven't watched a lot of alien movies to know enough.
 

jetflag

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So... which alien scifi movies do you think are somewhat plausible?

You’ll probably disqualify most simply because of the travel-faster-than-light thing. But is there any, or maybe just a part of any movie you think is sort of... possible, likely, “the way to go”...?
From an alien visiting us perspective: (and ignoring film plot holes like the energy shield thingy and the massive hovering of the spacecraft without external propulsion)

- Independence day is a nice example of a Generation or Seed ship. that, without FTL, is (partially) self sustaining, and just slowly hops from system to system, to colonize or takes op resources, and move on.

- Oblivion is a nice example of a Drone harvester/Terraform ship and IMO the most practical approach to say: establishing a human colony on Proxima cen.

From a we visit aliens prespective:
- Avatar (ignoring plot holes like unoptanium and practically unrealistic antimatter rockets, who you could replace with plausible tech and/or longer travel time) and i'm not even potentially excluding the mind upload thingy, though its a bit far fetched and frankly..unpractical

in terms of space "laws" accuracy I would recommend:

- The expanse, but without the Protomolecule.
- Passengers (despite the awfull plot)
 
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Hensmon

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Haha yeah I think it reached its peak @jetflag. OK I will sum up and conclude too, to end the Nimitz debate :)

David Fravor, trained to identify aerial objects, must have made an utterly catastrophic visual error (bordering on hallucination) in order to misread the size, shape, characteristics, speeds and various described movements of the object he engaged with for over 15 minutes to be something as innate as a balloon. As hard to believe as that is, the same catastrophe then must repeat itself three more times with each individual pilot. And then if not baffling enough already, by pure astronomical random chance those individual pilot visual misreads and mistakes just so happen to be consistent with each others reporting.

It really is as ludicrous a proposition as it sounds, dealing in odds of fractions of a percent. Sceptics don’t have the luxury of dropping those pilots accounts and moving onto other explanations (which also have holes) without first adopting belief in the above scenario. I instead choose the probable, non-delusional and simple answer; they are reporting accurately about what they all saw.

To make things more compelling the US military is the telling us their data is confirming what those pilots say. The Pentagon, U.S Intelligence, CIA directors and members of the Gov are then reinforcing those claims from the military, by telling us, ‘yes, vehicles with incredible maneuvers are being observed and it’s happening regularly, across the country’. Nimitz case is not a one off event.

I never said the Nimitz case proves ET, but It forces the opposing theories out of the realm of hoax and hallucination and into conclusions of either the extremely secret and jaw dropping advanced drone using theoretical unknown propulsion systems with capabilities of data manipulation to trick the data, or that there is a mass disinformation campaign taking place and the claims by US Intelligence personal and data are false. Both those theories have serious problems and I might be right in saying zero evidence on offer to support them.

That’s why @jetflag I asked previously for specifics of the misinformation theory (not a breakdown of human psychology and history). What program(s) exactly are they trying to fund? What evidence of that funding can be found? Who is whistleblowing the deception? Those answers would have to contend with all abundance of evidence which says the exact opposite is true i.e documented suppression on the UFO subject.

The serious* claims of craft and ET visitation are also spread across multiple countries gov/military, across 60+ decades and so numerous that we're talking hundreds of cases at the minimum. So the misinformation theory also has to contend with that too, as does the advanced tech theory, which both begin to collapse under those numbers, time periods/frames and regions.

And ultimately that’s where my belief in ET visitation begins. The opposing theories don't offer anything even remotely adequate for me in order to explain all that and what's worse they come without evidence. In comparison there are overwhelming numbers of cases and evidence available to review from masses of highly credible people who across time are telling us unequivocally there is something unbelievable going on. That’s multiple world Governments, multiple Heads of Defense, Heads of Intelligence, multiple CIA directors, Fleet Admirals, multiple astronauts, countless Military Major Generals and Generals, countless pilots, scientists and more. Hardly ‘blind faith’ as @Gagi put it ;) The ET hypothesis is therefore the most likely and logical choice for someone who believes intelligent life exists and thinks it likely they would be capable of going beyond our human understanding of how the Universe works. Decades of mass hallucinations after a birthday party just doesn’t cut it I'm afraid 🎈

*multiple witnesses, credible witnesses, supporting data.

p.s good time for a break from this now so I can properly debate you in the woke thread haha
 
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Gagi

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Great choice to conclude this, guys. I was getting tired just reading the same couple of arguments as well. As we probably won't come to an agreement, it's a good idea to finish this off.

So, I'll conclude as well.

I think I am just too aware of the, firstly, mere chance that is life itself on a planet. Perfect conditions at a perfect point in time. Yes, there are many many stars and even more planets in the universe, so that gives it some chance that there is life somewhere out there. But that leads me to the second thing, and that is the evolution from single-cell organisms (which are the first living things) to intelligent (or super-intelligent, as you're suggesting) species. We have had more than 3 billion years (some suggest up to 4.41, but the earliest fossil found was from 3.465 billion years ago) of evolution from single-cell organisms to intelligent humans (but note that life outside of single-cell organisms started flourishing just 540 million years ago), and a large majority of the species have been wiped out 5 times in the past few hundred (440) million years alone. On one single event, 95% of the species have been wiped out completely. So we owe our existence to dumb luck mostly. If dinosaurs haven't died out, maybe small creatures wouldn't have flourished and allowed humans to exist. The entire process is just staggering to me, and how we arrived at the point where "we're the way for the cosmos to understand itself", gives me shivers every time. Now, super-intelligent species are even more improbable than that, given that they need a head-start on us as well as perfect conditions for life to flourish, as well as the tree of life that includes the chance of there being intelligent species in the first place (because evolution is just random mutation of one individual that may or may not increase its chances of survivability and thus passing its genes onto future generations), combined with dumb luck that is the chance of high volcano activity, being hit by an asteroid or any other highly destructive scenario at a perfect point (or just avoiding that completely).

One other thing I'm aware of is the laws of nature (as we have gotten to know them over the past few hundred/thousand years). Even though that process was also staggering, the limitations are there. We know that, if you theoretically want to travel at the speed of light, your mass needs to be 0 exactly, because for a particle with a mass, as you get closer to the speed of light, your mass increases infinitely, and requires more energy to propel you, and as you approach the speed of light, every little increment in speed requires exponentially more and more energy to approach the speed of light. If you want to travel faster than light, you, in theory, need to have negative mass (is that even possible?). As it hasn't been proven yet (and it breaks so many laws and even simple thought experiments), I can't take that as a possibility seriously. You can't just arrive here like that.

Seems to me like you, Hens, have disregarded these and went at it straight like super-intelligent life exists 100%, and is breaking the laws of physics because they know something we don't. And they arrived here, of all places, just like that, out of reasons unknown to us.

I've tried my best to describe the conditions that need to be met in order for something like this to (realistically) happen (you can safely disregard the abduction part) in post #74.

The last thing is, eyewitness testimony is the weakest form of evidence in science. So, if there ever was something to convince me of these extraordinary claims, it would be the actual data (correct and verified measurements; not based on eyewitness testimony), analyzed by the entire scientific community, and nothing short of a large majority of them agreeing on what it actually is would convince me.

I don't think I have anything else to say, really. Thus concludeth my thoughts on UFOs and aliens visiting us.
 
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Hensmon

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I don’t think your estimated odds on the chance for intelligent life to emerge to be agreed upon by science though. The Drake equation produces extremely wide ranges, influenced by changes to some of individual assumptions needed in the calculation, anywhere between 0 and 100,000 in our Galaxy is produced. Many other papers I can find have predictions with those same conditions and wide estimates. So the science is not currently in position to say 'ETs unlikely visit us because they are unlikely to exist'. It seems that might be true, but no more than the alternative which is the universe is filled with intelligent life.

I think the scientific arguments around alien visitation are less around the likely hood for intelligent life to exist but instead the challenges around speed and distance it would take to get here.
 

jetflag

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the drake equation in itself makes sense. untill you arbitrairy assign numbers to the variables. Which is what everybody does when using the drake equation, and as such the results are untrustworthy.

no scientists worth their salt believes that they can assign numbers to the Drake variables and get a decent conclusion. Rather, the formula is used to demonstrate how little we know, how much there is still learn and what some of those things are.

But if someone comes up to you and tells you they've figured out the number of civilizations in our galaxy using the drake equation, what they're saying is absolutely horseshit. The equation itself, however, is not.
 
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Hensmon

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Yep exactly, the Drake equation was just an example of one of the many approaches the statisticians have put forward in order to make a calculation and they all seems to be dissatisfied with each others answers one way or the other. This was a nice article that talked about some of the different attempts and models they've been trying so far - Link. The conclusion seems 'we need more data'. It would be cool if going to Mars or other environments in the solar system could give us clues to other rates of abiogenesis, seems like estimating that part is key to making even a rough calculation

But that's why I wouldn't use the likely hood of intelligent life existing as a basis to dismiss the theory of ET arrival on earth, considering science does not know at all how likely it would or wouldn't be.

Even at 1 intelligent lifeform per galaxy we would be over 2 trillion intelligent lifeforms in the universe, but of course 1 per galaxy could easily be too generous or optimistic a guess. Either way we just don't know.
 
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TwinSilo

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The serious* claims of craft and ET visitation are also spread across multiple countries gov/military, across 60+ decades and so numerous that we're talking hundreds of cases at the minimum.

Correct the conversions on UFOs were taking place as early as the 50's, you can find evidence that the US Gov and CIA took this very seriously back then, with more talks of high speed UFO's and their maneuvers.

Quote below is from a memo that the CIA's Chief of Scientific Intelligence wrote to the CIA Director at the time Walter Smith in 1952, he is called H.Marshall Chadwell.

“At this time, the reports of incidents convince us that there is something going on that must have immediate attention, sightings of unexplained objects at great altitudes and traveling at high speeds, in the vicinity of major US defense installations are of such nature they are not attributable to natural pheonenoma or known types of vehicle”

And here also in 1952 is Major General Samford recording a public announcement about 'flying saucers' and how they have no idea what they are.



Harry Truman in the same period talks about how the "flying saucers" are discussed in every meeting he has with the military.



And then again in the 1960 another CIA director, Roscoe Hillenkoetter:

“Behind the scenes, high-ranking Air Force officers are soberly concerned about UFOs. But through official secrecy and ridicule, many citizens are led to believe the unknown flying objects are nonsense...It is time for the truth to be brought out in open Congressional hearings"

“I know that neither Russia nor this country had anything even approaching such high speeds and maneuvers…It is imperative that we learn where the UFO’s come from and what their purpose is.”
 
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Bluemoon

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Ive been reading this thread while u guys been discussing. Its been fun to watch.

But you can just stop it now because my girlfriend just sent me a picture of real proof lol.

Its taken from her window at 5th floor. I doubt its an alien sky car, but it looks weird ^^

188305664_1173090366530201_1487074447244161544_n.jpg
 
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TwinSilo

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More developments with the recent UFO topic and military videos

Obama just recently joined the list of people coming out and talking about the militaries interactions with UFO's - "we cant explain how they moved, their trajectory". Another fighter pilot Ryan Graves has come out and said occurrences with UFOs are ' almost daily'. Are the heads of intelligence, the pentagon, the president, the CIA directors, the senators, all these people, coming out with claims of insane vehicles and alien visitation based on some rogue balloons or birds they all just misidentified? Or is it more likely they know more and that there is extensive data and records. Think about it what it must take for them to come out and make statements like they are. It's not off some 10 second video and guess work.

Another video has been released. This time it's a spherical object, still no propulsion, and it moves underwater. Here are the two videos, one showing the object and another released today showing the radar footage and breakdown of the data (taken from Jeremy Corbell's instagram). They are both from the same incidence. Have a look at the details listed in the video. Multiple objects, multiple radars, 6ft estimate, high speeds, lasts for a hour, moves into water. Good luck explaining this one as balloons.

UFO video

The Radar
 
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LostLegend

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What gets me is why people are convinced this phenomenon, if real, is actually aliens?

Could it not be more likely to be some sort of natural phenomena that science is not yet aware of?
 
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jetflag

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or better yet. something mundaine that, within the footage, is too unclear to make out precisely and, due to manuevres or equipment limitations seems to act strange, but is in fact acting perfectly normal, and is thus classified as "we don't know what this is, therefor UFO"

(which is a perfectly honest classification by the way)
 
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jetflag

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They are both from the same incidence. Have a look at the details listed in the video. Multiple objects, multiple radars, 6ft estimate, high speeds, lasts for a hour, moves into water. Good luck explaining this one as balloons.
in be4 another thunderf00t debunk video
 

TwinSilo

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If they are here, daily, for yeaaaars... what are they waiting for? Seems stupid to fly around for nothing...

Who said they are flying around for nothing? Arriving to observe a world and its development seems logical, it's just information gathering. We do the same for tribes in the rainforest, observing from a distance with a deliberate decision to not engage. There have also been theories that some might be interested in particular minerals, elements or unique electromagnetic locations. Those of course are just speculations based off some of the significant UFO reports and sightings found around those kinds of areas, but the point is that there could be many reasons for a passive type of involvement.

But non-passive incidents are also well documented, with solid evidence. That includes UFOs disabling our nuclear weapons, which has been documented in great length and across multiple countries/time frames. And let's not forget masses of abductions, which sound cliche, but there are small percentages of those stories that are so unbelievable that no explanations can be offered. Even the Zimbabwe School Incident leaves skeptics shrugging, where 62 school children see groups of craft land and small beings walk out with eyes like footballs and telepathically communicate with them. This happened in 1994 and 25 years later they are still all telling the same consistent story (recently in a documentary). Harvard psychiatrist interviewed those children and said they were telling the truth.

And then we have the claims that direct contact and co-operation with alien life is happening. The former head of the Israeli's space program was the most recent, the former defense chief of the UK very vocal on such matters and the former head of defense for Canada who has gone into great detail of that. The multiple astronauts have already been mentioned. The list doesn't end with them either, its extensive. That's outright statements that it's true, not that it's their own or someones theory. What do you think compels these individual to put their reputations and credentials on the line to publicly say this is real?

TLDR - Mountain of evidence and claims for them interacting with us in many different ways, and straightforward reasons for passive engagements e.g Information gathering.
 
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jetflag

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well for one their all former heads. as in: retired.
so they're not at the peak of their heydays or not all that relevant/ worthy of attention anymore, and for some people, (especially those who used to be in high-end positions and are now stuck thumb twisting) thats compelling reason enough to engage in attention seeking from people who desperatly want to believe X, even if X can be explained away (as always seems to be the case) with far more mundaine solutions.

and "mountain of evidence" ?

please.. a mountain weak and insufficient evidence maybe.. consisting of blurred pictures, birds, weather phenomena, and people with "testimonies" who don't know what a run of the mill radar blip, paralax or a plane in the infrared spectrum is.