UFOs and Aliens

[Manofearth]

Mr Grusch and his claims last month were completely outlandish, wild and badly conspiratorial so I sat back quietly and awaited the ridicule and rejection that would surely follow but the weeks have now passed and nothing of the sort has appeared to have happened. All I see is more and more support and now he appears in front of Congress live on TV. Madness. Madness for this to happen if it’s a hoax, madness if it’s at all true. We are truly in unprecedented territory.

 

[dmgtz96]

I feel like if UFOs were true, no one would bat an eye. We're too fucked up getting destroyed by the weather/economy that aliens being discovered will be like... "meh, what is that going to do for me?"

Edit: ^ that is probably why there hasn't been an outrage on the internet. People just don't care.

AFAIK, no proper evidence has been submitted.

 

[jetflag]

I feel like if UFOs were true, no one would bat an eye. We're too fucked up getting destroyed by the weather/economy that aliens being discovered will be like... "meh, what is that going to do for me?"

Edit: ^ that is probably why there hasn't been an outrage on the internet. People just don't care.

AFAIK, no proper evidence has been submitted.

I don't think its lack of interrest in the topic due to other things going on... now this is anecdotal but most if not all people i know, even the ground to earth types admit that it would rock their world. Advanced Alien life actually being discovered right here on "our" planet earth also represents a far more primal issue then just existential dread of us not being alone eliviated..

It (at least in its proposed form) means that we are no longer the biggest bear in the woods. We, homo sapiens, are no longer the alpha species in our solar system..

I think the lack of interrest is simply due to what you wrote last. (evidence) in combination with us hearing "testimonies" and "stories" about this for more then half a century now, without anything concrete surfacing.


Its the classic Peter and the Wolf phenomenon.

 

[Archon]

 

[TwinSilo]

I feel like if UFOs were true, no one would bat an eye.

Really? I think the majority of people will be in shock or in awe at the acknowledgement that aliens are interacting with Earth. The religious community will have a lot to grapple with. The scientific community would be very excited, especially if the material Grusch is referencing is successfully pried from the private corporations that currently have it. The implications of humanity having in its possession technology that’s even 500 years ahead of what we have now most likely completely disrupts our lives, for better or for worse. They sure as hell aren’t using gasoline to get here, so consider the potential macro economic disruption that could come about.

At the very least, the fact that my government has allowed for what is now trillions of dollars to be siphoned off illegally into corporate and military hands should enrage anyone with a brain. Money we worked for that could do so much good.

 

[Nerio]

I don't understand how people can still trust a guy like Steven Greer, when you watch his films and lectures, they are all almost exactly the same as his first major lecture (2001 disclosure project).

He's still dissecting stuff from 40-50-70-80-90 years ago, but he hasn't said anything new in the last 20-30 years.

Try listening to his 2001 dislcosure project and then the 2023 national press club lecture. It's almost the same thing over and over, nothing new.

 

[jetflag]

At the very least, the fact that my government has allowed for what is now trillions of dollars to be siphoned off illegally into corporate and military hands should enrage anyone with a brain. Money we worked for that could do so much good.

We disagree a lot in this particular topic. But that^ is something we definitely see eye to eye too.

it is coincidentally however, also a big factor of my scepticism in all this recent hearing stuff.

 

[jetflag]

@Manofearth and @TwinSilo

in relation to the previous “the galaxy is filled with advanced civilisations” back&forth

Pbsst just did an episode on this, worth the watch

 

[Hensmon]

Pbsst just did an episode on this, worth the watch

Quite cool! He does stress a few times that this new model is highly assumption based. In fact it seems like it may be one of the most assumption based models we currently have on universe colonization, which is understandable given the specific scale and nature of what they are trying to predict.

Looking at the paper though it's very similar to the Drake equation, in that it not only produces a very broad range of outcomes based on the assumptions you plug in, but one of those outcomes includes intelligence being all over our galaxy. So this would be another model that predicts visitation as possible within our broad understanding of the universe.

One thing they overlooked regarding the hard steps is that if life on a planet begins development in an already colonized galaxy then some if not all hard steps have potential to be completely surpassed or manipulated by that intelligence. Aliens could grow or kick start life if they wanted to, and why wouldn't they?

 

[jetflag]

Oh yeah 100% and good that you pointed that out, I should have in all fairness added that big grain of salt to the post given my stance on say the drake equation but this was on my phone and during daddy hours. hehe

This is basically the problem with all of these prediction models and equations eh? We only have one instance of life that we know of, which thus far has been stuck to its planet and so the rest, aside from some aricebo etc. data is basically shots in the dark..

 

[TwinSilo]

Here’s a discussion by the author of the galactic colonization paper I talked about before.

Galactic Settlement and the Fermi Paradox

Conclusion is that even travelling at current human speeds of 10km per second the galaxy can be colonized almost completely in a billion years, well within our galaxies lifetime. Yet another paper showing it’s complete horse shit to dispel the current alien visitation on earth because “space is too big”. No it’s not too big. Doubt an alien race 100,000 years ahead of us still travels at 10km, don’t you? So the total time to colonize is vastly shorter than a billion. This paper uses the most extreme conservative estimates and it still makes aliens coming to earth likely.

So tell me why aliens can’t possibly be visiting earth as is being told to us. Let’s hear then evidence that says it’s not possible, or even likely.

 

[jetflag]

Here’s a discussion by the author of the galactic colonization paper I talked about before.

Galactic Settlement and the Fermi Paradox

Conclusion is that even travelling at current human speeds of 10km per second the galaxy can be colonized almost completely in a billion years, well within our galaxies lifetime. Yet another paper showing it’s complete horse shit to dispel the current alien visitation on earth because “space is too big”. No it’s not too big. Doubt an alien race 100,000 years ahead of us still travels at 10km, don’t you? So the total time to colonize is vastly shorter than a billion. This paper uses the most extreme conservative estimates and it still makes aliens coming to earth likely.

So tell me why aliens can’t possibly be visiting earth as is being told to us. Let’s hear then evidence that says it’s not possible, or even likely.

^

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Laws of thermodynamics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

there. and now you, in turn, can provide us with actual evidence of intelligent, space capable life having abiogenesis'd 100.000 before us.

you claiming that there's NO scientific evidence that aliens DON'T exist is like a christian fundamentalist claiming there's NO evidence that GOD doesn't exist. Sorry, but thats not how science/ evidence works. See/ Google: "Russels's Teapot" or Carl Sagan's "Invisible Dragon in the Garage" for further explanation on why that is a fallacy.

 

[Katadunkass]

I am sorry, but this might be one of the most vague non-articles I've read in recent time. It doesn't provide any evidence what-so-ever and while, sure, I haven't read the exact 18-page paper they link, this article alone is like eating a burger with no bun, meat or salad. I can also just pull some random scientific words out of my ass and say "Look what I found with no evidence!", but that doesn't make it right. All this article do is saying "Well, yeah, these constraints as to why we don't see settlements in outer space is pretty solid, but WHAT IF THEY WEREN'T" - alright, but why should I trust your lack of constraints more? Why is resource depletion not a valid constraint anymore? Just because it'll fit your article if it isn't?

Btw., you isn't you, but Jason Wright

 

[TwinSilo]

Show me the papers my dude, the ones that conclude alien visitation is not possible due to thermodynamics. In fact show me ANY paper that says alien visitation is not possible, under any context….

one of the most vague non-articles I've read in recent time. It doesn’t provide any evidence whatsoever

The paper contains the rational and calcualtions, if that’s what you mean by evidence? The article I shared is a great discussion piece, comparing theirs and others models, the thinking so far and where it leaves us.

The takeaway is that all models point to intelligent life everywhere OR no intelligent life whatsoever, apart from us. It must be the case in order to avoid the paradox. They conclude that a completely empty galaxy HAS to be the correct reality, due to their acceptance of the current (false) paradigm that no contact has been made, therefore it can only be empty. If we had made contact, then the other end of the model would be true.

I think it’s far more ridiculous and unlikely that we are the galaxies single intelligent life, as opposed to believing the galaxy has produced many intelligences. Would you dudes not bet the same way if making a choice between the two?

 

[jetflag]

Show me the papers my dude, the ones that conclude alien visitation is not possible due to thermodynamics. In fact show me ANY paper that says alien visitation is not possible, under any context….



The paper contains the rational and calcualtions, if that’s what you mean by evidence? The article I shared is a great discussion piece, comparing theirs and others models, the thinking so far and where it leaves us.

The takeaway is that all models point to intelligent life everywhere OR no intelligent life whatsoever, apart from us. It must be the case in order to avoid the paradox. They conclude that a completely empty galaxy HAS to be the correct reality, due to their acceptance of the current (false) paradigm that no contact has been made, therefore it can only be empty. If we had made contact, then the other end of the model would be true.

I think it’s far more ridiculous and unlikely that we are the galaxies single intelligent life, as opposed to believing the galaxy has produced many intelligences. Would you dudes not bet the same way if making a choice between the two?

“Show me the papers that prove there are NO fairies living in my garage!

You can’t? Haha. That proves it! Owned skeptards! Fairies exists!”

^ nonsensical line of reasoning isn’t it? @TwinSilo?

sorry but The burden of proof of alien existence is on you, and I’m not gonna let you shift it because you desperately want to believe.

You asked for reason/ argument against aliens visiting little old us in a million year sub c travel. That’s entropy. You can’t write a paper on how NOT to prove x

 

[TwinSilo]

nonsensical line of reasoning isn’t it?

I guess your attempt at it yeah. We all accept alien life to exist out there, don't we? And for good reason because we have all this data to support it as 99% the case. That same data also gives us the models that determine alien life CAN visit us, even to your garage. Some go so far as saying it's inevitable (Fermi, Wright). If something definitely exists, and definitely can be in your yard, and actually likely should be in your yard, then you start to see why your faries comparison is really ridiculous.

Am I misunderstanding beliefs here? You think alien visitation is impossible, because they couldn't actually get here... isn't that at the heart of your arguments and dismissiveness of this topic? Go show me what that belief is built upon then. There must be a reason as to why you believe that which goes beyond a wikipedia entry...

 

[jetflag]

I guess your attempt at it yeah.

When you asked me to prove a negative for you, you where engaging in an attempt at shifting the burden of proof. Which is a non-sensical (and frankly dishonest) line of reasoning. Which is precisely what the fairy analogy points out..

Its not the only thing wrong with your argument by the way, The Inverse Gamblers Fallacy's is in there, selection bias, leading the evidence etc.

Bottom line: You claim aliens definity exist and are definity visting us. -> burden of proof is on you. and sorry, but so far you've been found utterly wanting.

We all accept alien life to exist out there, don't we?

Stop you right there....You don’t get to speak for “we all”, you only get to speak for you. And since you're speaking to me...here's a more apt rephrase of that question:

"But @jetflag you handsomely magnanimously ardent picker-apart of posts...You accept alien life to exist out there don’t you?”

A: No, Dear Priest of the UAW church..., I Expect alien life to exist out there in the universe. (So not even perse in our own galaxy), but given 0 evidence of it actually being out there (the deafening silence/fermi paradox earlier mentioned) I do not accept its out there as a fact. Accepting something with 0 evidence is just gullibility, and I don’t do gullibility.

And for good reason because we have all this data to support it as 99% the case. That same data also gives us the models that determine alien life CAN visit us, even to your garage.

No “we” don’t …We have 0 accurate models that determine beyond a shadow of a doubt that alien life can visit us, of even exist ,full stop.

• We don’t know how the process of abiogenesis came about..
• We don’t know what the filters for intelligent life are..
• Our models for Sol- and Sol-system planet formation is incomplete at the very best and at worse highly speculative.. let alone the rest of them..
• We only have one instance of intelligent life leaving its home planet orbit and it can’t by itself even leave its home system..relying on (decaying) probes instead..

So what are "we" , pray tell, going to base/shape those “holy accurate” models that allegedly support it as 99% the case on precisely? A wet thumb? Calculus?

Its a nice philosphical pondering, you can even let loose some fancy math on it. But at the end the day, much like M-theory.. Is and will remain spectulation, untill we actually discover tangible evidence like them "landing in our garage"

Some go so far as saying it's inevitable (Fermi, Wright). If something definitely exists, and definitely can be in your yard, and actually likely should be in your yard, then you start to see why your faries comparison is really ridiculous.

yeah good for them, I can list you of another of hand picked thinkers with nice variations on that if you like..

like:

• They definitly exist, but are definitly not visiting us because the universe is a Dark forest. (Saberhagen)
• They definitly existed, but they all die of before they can come say hi. (Brin)
• They definitly exist, but they're utterly uninterrested in us (Arthur)

but until they, all of them.. actually present "definitely" proper evidence of that, it "definitely" is all just a schrödingers cat. (or schrödingers fairy, if you like)

Am I misunderstanding beliefs here? You think alien visitation is impossible, because they couldn't actually get here... isn't that at the heart of your arguments and dismissiveness of this topic?

This isn't about belief or faith @TwinSilo....This thread isn’t a cult/Church where we all get to sing cumbaya in unison for whatever Drake-equation esq brain-fart passes as justifification for said belief.. I don't do faith-based belief. I have reasonable expectations based on evidence at best. But I don't do faith, Faith is, again, just gullibility.

What is at the heart of my arguments and dismissiveness of what you and others (thusfar) have presented is simple honesty in recognizing lack of evidence. (and patiently waiting for something actually substantive to show up)

Go show me what that belief is built upon then. There must be a reason as to why you believe that which goes beyond a wikipedia entry...

I told you, I have reasonable expectations based on evidence.

Like evidence for the laws of physics.

...and the limitations those provide.

and given there is 0 credible evidence for alien visitations so far, and there is ample credible evidence for the laws of physics to be accurate, AND there's a massive dead-silence out there, despite us constantly and diligently probing with all the latest technologies...I don't believe aliens are visiting us.

 

[Katadunkass]

Holy shit, TwinSilo, you managed to silence jetflag. All he could do was quoting your post with no comments.

All hail TwinSilo, our new UFO leader!

 

[jetflag]

Holy shit, TwinSilo, you managed to silence jetflag. All he could do was quoting your post with no comments.

All hail TwinSilo, our new UFO leader!

Refresh your browsertab

 

[Katadunkass]

Refresh your browsertab

Hahaha, I knew you wouldn't let me down